3 Aug · 03:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1479
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mucha
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1490
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.