3 Aug · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1493
FormWLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1553
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)