3 Aug · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GW
🇵🇱Grzegorz Wichowski
ELO 1605
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1623
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H43-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.