3 Aug · 11:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1385
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jurowicz
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1401
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Jurowicz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H16-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.