3 Aug · 12:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1501
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sobel
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1442
FormWLWWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 73% · 1.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H10-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-5)