3 Aug · 15:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1614
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Balcerzak
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1574
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Balcerzak goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H69-67
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.