3 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1378
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1395
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.20· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H17-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.