3 Aug · 21:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1562
FormLWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1493
FormLWWLW
58%
42%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H57-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (57-50)