3 Aug · 23:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1554
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adamus
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1547
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.