3 Aug · 23:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1386
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1393
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 31% · 3.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H17-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.