3 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1308
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Piecowski
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1276
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.