4 Aug · 01:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1419
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1485
FormLWLLW
43%
57%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H8-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-7)