4 Aug · 12:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1416
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Przewlocki
PP
🇵🇱Piotr Przewlocki
ELO 1421
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Buczynski
Fair odds · Przewlocki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.