4 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1416
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gajda
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1421
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🌟Gajda stays under total as favourite 66% (29)
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.