4 Aug · 11:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1535
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sobel
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1531
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H22-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.