4 Aug · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1663
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Nowalinski
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1731
FormWLWWW
43%
57%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as favourite 64% (66)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H36-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-35)