4 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1475
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pelka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1479
FormLWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Baron covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.