4 Aug · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1462
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Idaczyk
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1430
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.