4 Aug · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1722
FormLWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nowalinski
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1635
FormLLWWW
59%
41%
🌟Kosmal covers set handicap as underdog 67% (24)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+87
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)