4 Aug · 17:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1455
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baron
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1444
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Idaczyk🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H9-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.