4 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1591
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Solilo
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1579
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Solilo
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.