4 Aug · 18:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1455
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baron
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1442
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Baron rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (46)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.