4 Aug · 18:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1320
FormLWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1395
FormWWLWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H67-76
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)