4 Aug · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1343
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kotwica
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1331
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H9-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.