4 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1365
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kowalczyk
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1332
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H5-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.