4 Aug · 21:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1402
FormLLWLW
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Kaczynski
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1540
FormLWLLL
35%
65%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~76 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+138
H2H12-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+138)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-5)