4 Aug · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1610
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tkocz
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1561
FormLLWWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H22-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-3)