4 Aug · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1333
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kotwica
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gluszek
ELO 1267
FormWLWLW
57%
43%
🌟Kotwica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H34-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-18)