4 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1527
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1588
FormLLLWW
43%
57%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 68% (37)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H21-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-15)