4 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1321
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kotwica
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1341
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Kotwica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H8-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.