4 Aug · 23:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1641
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkaczyk
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1591
FormWLLLL
56%
44%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H47-37
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-37)