5 Aug · 00:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1616
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1622
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H10-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.