5 Aug · 00:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1327
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kotwica
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1341
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.