5 Aug · 02:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1614
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkocz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1557
FormWWWWW
56%
44%
🌟Oracz stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)