5 Aug · 02:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1391
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Trela
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1343
FormWWLWL
55%
45%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H14-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-12)