5 Aug · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1549
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1563
FormWWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Oracz stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H17-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.