5 Aug · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1501
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Michalik
KD
🇵🇱Kamil Delikatny
ELO 1470
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H16-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.