5 Aug · 03:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1572
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polok
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1563
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.