5 Aug · 04:45 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1405
FormLLLLW
75%Win chancemodel fair 1.33Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1651
FormWWLWL
25%
75%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 75% · 1.33vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~73 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
10%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+246
H2H40-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+246)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-15)