5 Aug · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1625
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Balcerzak
KG
🇵🇱Kacper Glazowski
ELO 1611
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Balcerzak goes over total as favourite 75% (16)
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.29· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H18-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.