5 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1592
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fomin
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1554
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H26-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.