5 Aug · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Krystian Kolodziej
ELO 1773
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kolodziej
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1711
FormLWWLW
57%
43%
🌟Rutkowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (128)
Fair odds · Kolodziej
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H71-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (71-12)