5 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1621
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nocun
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1592
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 68% (37)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H17-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.