5 Aug · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1514
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Smolka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1478
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H8-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.