5 Aug · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1388
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gajda
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1403
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H16-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.