5 Aug · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1435
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1514
FormLWWLL
41%
59%
🌟Juzek stays under total as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H43-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-32)