5 Aug · 20:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1387
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1445
FormLLLWL
44%
56%
🌟Baron rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (46)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H50-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-36)