5 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇵🇱Janus Slawomir
ELO 1525
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Baran
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1541
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
🌟Baran goes over total as favourite 64% (22)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.