5 Aug · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1382
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kowalczyk
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1330
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strus🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H38-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-32)