5 Aug · 22:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1450
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Juszczyk
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1492
FormLWLWW
45%
55%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Juszczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H9-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-4)